Swindon Town (H) League Saturday 9/12/06

[PT]

Fair play to DD, he more or less admitted he got it wrong in his post match.

My concerns are that Dobson is slowly turning into Paul Smith and DD's signing of the big man up front means that he can succumb to the long ball urge that he's been battling to restrain all season. Only other time we were 2 down this season (at Lincoln) we ran at em with Demon and Fang in full flow. Yesterday was a million miles from that, hopeful punts with no width, passion or pace.

Hope it is a blip, hope we can find a creative midfielder and hope DD sees a solution that involves getting the best out of possibly the best centre-forward in the division rather than having him running his balls off chasing hoofs.

We're still top, we're still clear. Let's learn and move on.

[ShropsSaddler]

No, I'm sorry.....I can't be doing with all this moaning. Let's have a proper look at the situation;

i) Did we have a "bad day at the office"? Yes, undoubtedly, we didn't play well. As a team. Some poor individual performances as well. But, hey, it happens from time to time.

ii) Are Swindon a better side than us as so many people seem to be saying? On the day - Yes, no doubt. Overall - no, clearly not, look at the league table, we're 7 points clear of them. That means we ARE a better side than them. There can be no argument.

iii) Did Mr Money get his tactics wrong today? Yes, and he admitted it. Has he got them wrong much this season so far? Hardly ever. In fact he's turned games around with his tactical nous. He's learned from his mistake, it won't happen again.

iv) Were we comprehensively beaten? WEll. I admit Swindon were better and deserved to win BUT the FACTS are that they scored one decent goal and were handed the other goal by an incompetent referee. So, let's take away that appalling decision, we had a real off-day and lost 1-0 to probably the next best side in the division! Cause for concern and general muttering about this being the beginning of the end? NO!!!!

As for individual players and some of the criticisms;

i) Ince - I can't see how he was at fault for the first goal and for people to start moaning about him after the way he's kept us in so many games this season is unbelievable. I'd go as far as to say if I was given a choice between Ince and Walker right now, I'd keep Ince.

ii) Westwood - what idiots booing him. He's been immense in the last few games, poor yesterday. So let's all boo him, eh?!? Thick, thick idiots!

iii) Dobson - poor yesterday but I thought he looked very unfit. Not sure why this is but I can't believe he's not training properly under Mr Money. So have to assume he has an illness/injury. But for people to come on here and say he's been useless all season, doesn't close men down etc is utter tripe! Fact is, our midfield was overrun and outclassed yesterday. Swindon played with 5 effective midfielders. WE had Kinsella giving his all but proving he is too slow to play anymore, Dobson looking unfit, Wright anonymous and Fox totally ineffective.

iv) Wright - he was poor, no denying it. But I agree with some of the other comments - at least he tried to give us a wide option, which is more than you could say for Fox, who spent most of the match getting in the way.

v) Taylor - would love to see that first goal again. Taylor has come in for criticism for not passing to Fox. The way I saw it, Fox was NOT making himself available for a pass and was static, Taylor was charging forward and trying to take on his man. In those circumstances, should Fox not have dropped off and covered?

Yesterday was a disappointment but it is no reason to start saying we're useless and wondering about our position in the league. If we lose to Wrexham and Boston, then, yes, we'll have to start worrying a bit. However, I hope and believe that Mr Money will rally the troops and, when we come up against lesser opposition over the next few weeks, we'll be back on the winning trail.

[Duke]

Very well said Shrops , if i did'nt know better reading this board i would think we were in a relegation battle "again".

[ws3]

Very well said Shrops , if i did'nt know better reading this board i would think we were in a relegation battle "again".

Well, we're not safe just yet. :wink:

[Duke]

Very well said Shrops , if i did'nt know better reading this board i would think we were in a relegation battle "again".

Well, we're not safe just yet. :wink:

too true , Macclesfield won again yesterday :roll: :wink:

[Kiansmom]

No, I'm sorry.....I can't be doing with all this moaning. Let's have a proper look at the situation;

i) Did we have a "bad day at the office"? Yes, undoubtedly, we didn't play well. As a team. Some poor individual performances as well. But, hey, it happens from time to time.

ii) Are Swindon a better side than us as so many people seem to be saying? On the day - Yes, no doubt. Overall - no, clearly not, look at the league table, we're 7 points clear of them. That means we ARE a better side than them. There can be no argument.

iii) Did Mr Money get his tactics wrong today? Yes, and he admitted it. Has he got them wrong much this season so far? Hardly ever. In fact he's turned games around with his tactical nous. He's learned from his mistake, it won't happen again.

iv) Were we comprehensively beaten? WEll. I admit Swindon were better and deserved to win BUT the FACTS are that they scored one decent goal and were handed the other goal by an incompetent referee. So, let's take away that appalling decision, we had a real off-day and lost 1-0 to probably the next best side in the division! Cause for concern and general muttering about this being the beginning of the end? NO!!!!

As for individual players and some of the criticisms;

i) Ince - I can't see how he was at fault for the first goal and for people to start moaning about him after the way he's kept us in so many games this season is unbelievable. I'd go as far as to say if I was given a choice between Ince and Walker right now, I'd keep Ince.

ii) Westwood - what idiots booing him. He's been immense in the last few games, poor yesterday. So let's all boo him, eh?!? Thick, thick idiots!

iii) Dobson - poor yesterday but I thought he looked very unfit. Not sure why this is but I can't believe he's not training properly under Mr Money. So have to assume he has an illness/injury. But for people to come on here and say he's been useless all season, doesn't close men down etc is utter tripe! Fact is, our midfield was overrun and outclassed yesterday. Swindon played with 5 effective midfielders. WE had Kinsella giving his all but proving he is too slow to play anymore, Dobson looking unfit, Wright anonymous and Fox totally ineffective.

iv) Wright - he was poor, no denying it. But I agree with some of the other comments - at least he tried to give us a wide option, which is more than you could say for Fox, who spent most of the match getting in the way.

v) Taylor - would love to see that first goal again. Taylor has come in for criticism for not passing to Fox. The way I saw it, Fox was NOT making himself available for a pass and was static, Taylor was charging forward and trying to take on his man. In those circumstances, should Fox not have dropped off and covered?

Yesterday was a disappointment but it is no reason to start saying we're useless and wondering about our position in the league. If we lose to Wrexham and Boston, then, yes, we'll have to start worrying a bit. However, I hope and believe that Mr Money will rally the troops and, when we come up against lesser opposition over the next few weeks, we'll be back on the winning trail.

excellent post! :lol:

[saddlerken]

Shrops, that is an excellent post

People picking on Wright when at least another half dozen were just as dreadful

[Chomper]

Too true, there were far to many players having an off day. In fact, i can't single out any of them for praise. Dann was probably the best of a bad bunch. We were totally outplayed and my main gripe is we didn't even give it a go. Nobody supported the front two, the wingers were isolated and the full backs offered nothing in the way of an overlap. Pretty disappointed that we didn't involve Ishy as i thought we lacked width, which may have been needed to strech there midfield/defence.

Its always when you bring a couple of mates, who now have no plans to return in a hurry...

It should be a one off - we ARE better than that.

I really hate losing to a side because they were 'up for it' moreso than we were. :evil:

[geoffwhiting]

Like I said, I do agree that Swindon looked the better team, and I do think that we struggled in a few areas today.

Having said that, I still thought, up until that point, that we would still get something out of the game.

We were camped in the Swindon half early second half.

I have no problem with the opposition being better than average, but do have a problem with below standard officiating.

There have been few comments about the improvement in the early part of the 2nd half, but you are quite right addo, and at that time I was starting to think we were getting well into the game and might get a point. Dobson's shot over the bar should have been breaking the net, why couldn't he keep it down from such a good position instead of clearing the bar? At that point in the game I felt some reason for optimism, but that was short-lived. Had that shot gone in, we would doubtless have been telling a different story this morning, but I guess it was too much to expect Dobbo to get it on target from 20 yards, as he hardly managed to get a 5 yard pass to it's intended target all afternoon - he gave us a truly abysmal display yesterday.

Had Fox's superb long-range effort in the 1st half gone in instead of being finger-tipped wide by their keeper, again it might have lifted us to a better level of performance. To those who say Fox did NOTHING, well try and remember that was the best shot in the game, from anyone on either side.

Returning to the 2nd half, any hopes of a comeback certainly disappeared with that appalling penalty decision, and I'm amazed that so few have highlighted that as a major impact on the outcome. We are a second half team - that has been the case for more or less the whole season - "what will DD do to sort 'em out for the 2nd half?" has been the talking point of many a half-time in the Bonser Suite this season. So this is nothing new by any means, although we have not faced opposition as strong as Swindon before, and that's largely why we haven't come back this time, though the crazy penalty was the killer blow.

Usually I'd be ranting and raving about the poor display yesterday, but I had an interesting conversation with some Swindon fans on the 15 minute walk back to my car, and it maybe put this into a bit of perspective.

The first words that one of these guys said to us was "That was never a penalty, we were amazed, nobody appealed, we couldn't believe our luck when the Ref gave it against your player". They saw it as crucial, as they'd sensed we'd been coming back into the game and pinned them back in their own third for a while.

Other quotes from them :

"We were expecting a really tough game from you today, and we'd not been playing well, awful at Mansfield in the week, so couldn't believe how easy it was for us in the first half. You can't usually have been that bad, or you wouldn't be where you are in the table."

"We were chuffed to get the penalty when we did, because we were starting to think you were coming back strong against us".

"That's the best we've played all season by a mile, especially since Wise went. We'd gone downhill quite a bit since then".

I think there's a lot to take from what they said. Yes we were bad, at times awful, but they played at their absolute tops while we took a real dip throughout the whole team. It's going to happen sometime, for us it was yesterday, although we've been heading for this kind of wake-up call for some weeks now with some below-par performances - especially from midfield where the game was lost (or should I say given away) yesterday - I look back to MK Dons, Torquay etc., and a number of others where we've failed to get a grip in midfield. Difference was, of course, those sides didn't play like Swindon yesterday, as if it meant everything to them, with fire in their bellies, closing us down, moving the ball around with pace, winning all the 50:50s, taking the ball away from us in 90% of their challenges. In short, they knew they couldn't afford to drop 13 points behind us and came with that as their mind-set, while we treated it as just another "can't lose at Fortress Bescot" game, and we came unstuck big-time.

Despite the below-par performance from us, I take some positives from the fact we were still well in the game until that crazy penalty decision, which must mean something, even if only that we can defend, we have a good 'keeper, or their finishing quality wasn't all that impressive. We are still 7 points clear, and if this acts as a wake-up call it will have been a worthwhile lesson. It may also have done us little real harm, as it's a defeat to a team within the top three promotion slots, and other results outside the top three again went largely in our favour - Wycombe drawing, Lincoln getting hammered, Notts County going down - only MK Dons really went against us I think.

As an aside, I wonder what the Accrington manager thought, them being the best home team in the League, gutted to lose to MKD, wonder if he's recorded that yet, just so he can play it every game instead of having to waste his time on post-match interviews? :lol:

So, not too dis-heartened, I think I have those Swindon fans to thank for getting my head into gear about that .

Next week at Wrexham? Tricky one this, I think I expect us to have lost two on the trot when we come on here next week, anything better than that would be a bonus IMHO.

Then Boston away on the 23rd, very much an unknown quantity this, I'd like 3 points but with Kinsella and his creativity gone, we may be glad of just 1. Then the crucial home games on Boxing Day and the 30th, these two are must-win games for me because we then move on to the Posh on New Year's Day, and that is going to be a tough one (though Par can play there can't he?).

Things are still good, fantastic in fact in many ways considering where we've been these past two years, so let's put this down as one of those inevitable things, the worst of the off days, coupled with our opponents' best performance of the season. Onwards and upwards, we ARE going up, and whether it's 1st, 2nd or 3rd, it won't matter a jot in May when (and I say WHEN, not if) we get there.

[geoffwhiting]

No, I'm sorry.....I can't be doing with all this moaning. Let's have a proper look at the situation;

i) Did we have a "bad day at the office"? Yes, undoubtedly, we didn't play well. As a team. Some poor individual performances as well. But, hey, it happens from time to time.

ii) Are Swindon a better side than us as so many people seem to be saying? On the day - Yes, no doubt. Overall - no, clearly not, look at the league table, we're 7 points clear of them. That means we ARE a better side than them. There can be no argument.

iii) Did Mr Money get his tactics wrong today? Yes, and he admitted it. Has he got them wrong much this season so far? Hardly ever. In fact he's turned games around with his tactical nous. He's learned from his mistake, it won't happen again.

iv) Were we comprehensively beaten? WEll. I admit Swindon were better and deserved to win BUT the FACTS are that they scored one decent goal and were handed the other goal by an incompetent referee. So, let's take away that appalling decision, we had a real off-day and lost 1-0 to probably the next best side in the division! Cause for concern and general muttering about this being the beginning of the end? NO!!!!

As for individual players and some of the criticisms;

i) Ince - I can't see how he was at fault for the first goal and for people to start moaning about him after the way he's kept us in so many games this season is unbelievable. I'd go as far as to say if I was given a choice between Ince and Walker right now, I'd keep Ince.

ii) Westwood - what idiots booing him. He's been immense in the last few games, poor yesterday. So let's all boo him, eh?!? Thick, thick idiots!

iii) Dobson - poor yesterday but I thought he looked very unfit. Not sure why this is but I can't believe he's not training properly under Mr Money. So have to assume he has an illness/injury. But for people to come on here and say he's been useless all season, doesn't close men down etc is utter tripe! Fact is, our midfield was overrun and outclassed yesterday. Swindon played with 5 effective midfielders. WE had Kinsella giving his all but proving he is too slow to play anymore, Dobson looking unfit, Wright anonymous and Fox totally ineffective.

iv) Wright - he was poor, no denying it. But I agree with some of the other comments - at least he tried to give us a wide option, which is more than you could say for Fox, who spent most of the match getting in the way.

v) Taylor - would love to see that first goal again. Taylor has come in for criticism for not passing to Fox. The way I saw it, Fox was NOT making himself available for a pass and was static, Taylor was charging forward and trying to take on his man. In those circumstances, should Fox not have dropped off and covered?

Yesterday was a disappointment but it is no reason to start saying we're useless and wondering about our position in the league. If we lose to Wrexham and Boston, then, yes, we'll have to start worrying a bit. However, I hope and believe that Mr Money will rally the troops and, when we come up against lesser opposition over the next few weeks, we'll be back on the winning trail.

Great post, I must have been typing mine when yours came through so hadn't read it before I posted, but we're clearly on the same wavelength here.

Have to agree fully with you about Ince. OK I was surprised he didn't try to come off his line, but really, EVERYONE stood still, God knows why, and he stood NO chance whatsoever unless the Swindon guy had put his shot wide.

[Bitter Tree Hugger]

You lost, so what - not the first and won't be the last.

You are still clear with loads of games left.

Just treat it as a kick up the jacksy and go waste the next team

[KJC]

Fantastic post, Shrops.... very well summed up.
We just had too many of our big players having an off-day.


One thing that concerned me though, was our total lack of pace and width.
Like him or loathe him, M.Wright does offer us options and an outlet with his pace.
After he went off, we never looked like getting beyond their defence.

[Bernie]

ii) Are Swindon a better side than us as so many people seem to be saying? On the day - Yes, no doubt. Overall - no, clearly not, look at the league table, we're 7 points clear of them. That means we ARE a better side than them. There can be no argument.

There certainly can be an argument about whether the league table always tells the truth about which is the better team.

Try this experiment: take a 1p coin and a £1 coin. Toss them together 20 times recording the number of heads each obtains. There is a high probability (it can be calculated using the Binomial Distribution where n = 20 and p = 0.5) that there will be a difference of more than 3 heads between the two coins.

If in your experiment the 1p coin came out with 4 more heads than the £1 coin would that mean that the 1p coin was better at getting heads than the £1 coin? No it would just be the result of natural random variation.

Similar experiments will demonstrate that two football teams which are both equally good will be very unlikely after 20 matches to be on the same number of points. The probability is that there will be at least a five points gap between them, and a nine point gap is also pretty likely. Using this theory with different values for "p" you can then go on to see the extent to which one team being better than the other means that they will be more successful - you will find that it is by no means a certainty.

[geoffwhiting]

Fantastic post, Shrops.... very well summed up.
We just had too many of our big players having an off-day.


One thing that concerned me though, was our total lack of pace and width.
Like him or loathe him, M.Wright does offer us options and an outlet with his pace.
After he went off, we never looked like getting beyond their defence.

Very true, I think that will be at the front of DD's mind today, and maybe a place for Ishy might come up for consideration, as lack of width on our left side was such an obvious factor throughout the whole game yesterday. I was really surprised and disappointed, before the game, to see Ishy come walking through the Bonser Suite dressed in his suit. I think DD got it wrong not to have him at least on the bench yesterday, but I think/hope he'll know that for himself.

[Whitti Steve]

No, I'm sorry.....I can't be doing with all this moaning. Let's have a proper look at the situation;

i) Did we have a "bad day at the office"? Yes, undoubtedly, we didn't play well. As a team. Some poor individual performances as well. But, hey, it happens from time to time.

ii) Are Swindon a better side than us as so many people seem to be saying? On the day - Yes, no doubt. Overall - no, clearly not, look at the league table, we're 7 points clear of them. That means we ARE a better side than them. There can be no argument.

iii) Did Mr Money get his tactics wrong today? Yes, and he admitted it. Has he got them wrong much this season so far? Hardly ever. In fact he's turned games around with his tactical nous. He's learned from his mistake, it won't happen again.

iv) Were we comprehensively beaten? WEll. I admit Swindon were better and deserved to win BUT the FACTS are that they scored one decent goal and were handed the other goal by an incompetent referee. So, let's take away that appalling decision, we had a real off-day and lost 1-0 to probably the next best side in the division! Cause for concern and general muttering about this being the beginning of the end? NO!!!!

As for individual players and some of the criticisms;

i) Ince - I can't see how he was at fault for the first goal and for people to start moaning about him after the way he's kept us in so many games this season is unbelievable. I'd go as far as to say if I was given a choice between Ince and Walker right now, I'd keep Ince.

ii) Westwood - what idiots booing him. He's been immense in the last few games, poor yesterday. So let's all boo him, eh?!? Thick, thick idiots!

iii) Dobson - poor yesterday but I thought he looked very unfit. Not sure why this is but I can't believe he's not training properly under Mr Money. So have to assume he has an illness/injury. But for people to come on here and say he's been useless all season, doesn't close men down etc is utter tripe! Fact is, our midfield was overrun and outclassed yesterday. Swindon played with 5 effective midfielders. WE had Kinsella giving his all but proving he is too slow to play anymore, Dobson looking unfit, Wright anonymous and Fox totally ineffective.

iv) Wright - he was poor, no denying it. But I agree with some of the other comments - at least he tried to give us a wide option, which is more than you could say for Fox, who spent most of the match getting in the way.

v) Taylor - would love to see that first goal again. Taylor has come in for criticism for not passing to Fox. The way I saw it, Fox was NOT making himself available for a pass and was static, Taylor was charging forward and trying to take on his man. In those circumstances, should Fox not have dropped off and covered?

Yesterday was a disappointment but it is no reason to start saying we're useless and wondering about our position in the league. If we lose to Wrexham and Boston, then, yes, we'll have to start worrying a bit. However, I hope and believe that Mr Money will rally the troops and, when we come up against lesser opposition over the next few weeks, we'll be back on the winning trail.

Excellent summing up of the situation. I too was disgusted by the booing of Westwood.

[Duke]

No, I'm sorry.....I can't be doing with all this moaning. Let's have a proper look at the situation;

i) Did we have a "bad day at the office"? Yes, undoubtedly, we didn't play well. As a team. Some poor individual performances as well. But, hey, it happens from time to time.

ii) Are Swindon a better side than us as so many people seem to be saying? On the day - Yes, no doubt. Overall - no, clearly not, look at the league table, we're 7 points clear of them. That means we ARE a better side than them. There can be no argument.

iii) Did Mr Money get his tactics wrong today? Yes, and he admitted it. Has he got them wrong much this season so far? Hardly ever. In fact he's turned games around with his tactical nous. He's learned from his mistake, it won't happen again.

iv) Were we comprehensively beaten? WEll. I admit Swindon were better and deserved to win BUT the FACTS are that they scored one decent goal and were handed the other goal by an incompetent referee. So, let's take away that appalling decision, we had a real off-day and lost 1-0 to probably the next best side in the division! Cause for concern and general muttering about this being the beginning of the end? NO!!!!

As for individual players and some of the criticisms;

i) Ince - I can't see how he was at fault for the first goal and for people to start moaning about him after the way he's kept us in so many games this season is unbelievable. I'd go as far as to say if I was given a choice between Ince and Walker right now, I'd keep Ince.

ii) Westwood - what idiots booing him. He's been immense in the last few games, poor yesterday. So let's all boo him, eh?!? Thick, thick idiots!

iii) Dobson - poor yesterday but I thought he looked very unfit. Not sure why this is but I can't believe he's not training properly under Mr Money. So have to assume he has an illness/injury. But for people to come on here and say he's been useless all season, doesn't close men down etc is utter tripe! Fact is, our midfield was overrun and outclassed yesterday. Swindon played with 5 effective midfielders. WE had Kinsella giving his all but proving he is too slow to play anymore, Dobson looking unfit, Wright anonymous and Fox totally ineffective.

iv) Wright - he was poor, no denying it. But I agree with some of the other comments - at least he tried to give us a wide option, which is more than you could say for Fox, who spent most of the match getting in the way.

v) Taylor - would love to see that first goal again. Taylor has come in for criticism for not passing to Fox. The way I saw it, Fox was NOT making himself available for a pass and was static, Taylor was charging forward and trying to take on his man. In those circumstances, should Fox not have dropped off and covered?

Yesterday was a disappointment but it is no reason to start saying we're useless and wondering about our position in the league. If we lose to Wrexham and Boston, then, yes, we'll have to start worrying a bit. However, I hope and believe that Mr Money will rally the troops and, when we come up against lesser opposition over the next few weeks, we'll be back on the winning trail.

Excellent summing up of the situation. I too was disgusted by the booing of Westwood.

I'm disgusted by the booing of any Walsall player , we all have off days .

[Registered Saddler]

ii) Are Swindon a better side than us as so many people seem to be saying? On the day - Yes, no doubt. Overall - no, clearly not, look at the league table, we're 7 points clear of them. That means we ARE a better side than them. There can be no argument.

There certainly can be an argument about whether the league table always tells the truth about which is the better team.

Try this experiment: take a 1p coin and a £1 coin. Toss them together 20 times recording the number of heads each obtains. There is a high probability (it can be calculated using the Binomial Distribution where n = 20 and p = 0.5) that there will be a difference of more than 3 heads between the two coins.

If in your experiment the 1p coin came out with 4 more heads than the £1 coin would that mean that the 1p coin was better at getting heads than the £1 coin? No it would just be the result of natural random variation.

Similar experiments will demonstrate that two football teams which are both equally good will be very unlikely after 20 matches to be on the same number of points. The probability is that there will be at least a five points gap between them, and a nine point gap is also pretty likely. Using this theory with different values for "p" you can then go on to see the extent to which one team being better than the other means that they will be more successful - you will find that it is by no means a certainty.

Interesting...but incorrect. You can't fit a binomial distribution to the results of football matches, because its not a question of chance. We don't have a 50/50 chance of getting a win or loss every game, it simply doesn't work like that.

Your wider point is whether the league table lies. Well, yes it can, it doesn't always rank teams in order of how good they are. But there are some other key points. Firstly we don't go out (necessarily) to be the better team. We go out to get a result. These aren't always one and the same thing. What does the league table show us - that so far we are the best team at getting results. In that it doesn't lie.

Also, the implication seems to be that we are going to get found out sooner or later and that just because we are well top of the league doesn't mean we're going to stay there. Maybe we won't. Maybe we will have a dip in form. It's all guesswork and we'll only see come the end of the season whether we do or not. But my prediction would be that any side that can concede as few goals as we do and pick up away wins at places like Hereford, Bury, Bristol Rovers and Accrington, will be in with a fantastic chance of being in the top three come May.

[Bernie]

Obviously I was given a very simplified description but the basic theory still works.

Football is a very unpredictable game with so many elements of chance coupled with a scoring system that does not necessarily reflect the overall balance of play.

Those who play squash will know that the very simplicity of the format makes it highly likely that the better player will always win. If you look at the results of squash tournaments there are very few shock results.

Tennis on the other hand allows for a great element of chance and as a result it is very common for a player in the top ten to be beaten by someone out of the top hundred.

In football the better team does not always win. I have mentioned before the FinkTank on the Times website http://www.dectech.org/times/Predictor.html which looks into the probability of each result. Chelsea should beat Arsenal this afternoon you would think - but based on a very careful and thorough analysis of past results the FinkTank comes up with 52.3% probability of a Chelsea win, 29.1% for a draw and 18.6% chance of an Arsenal win. Generally the bookmakers odds are similar to the FinkTank calculations.

Since the better team does not always win the league table does sometimes mislead us.

[Greg WP]

Obviously I was given a very simplified description but the basic theory still works.

Football is a very unpredictable game with so many elements of chance coupled with a scoring system that does not necessarily reflect the overall balance of play.

Those who play squash will know that the very simplicity of the format makes it highly likely that the better player will always win. If you look at the results of squash tournaments there are very few shock results.

Tennis on the other hand allows for a great element of chance and as a result it is very common for a player in the top ten to be beaten by someone out of the top hundred.

In football the better team does not always win. I have mentioned before the FinkTank on the Times website http://www.dectech.org/times/Predictor.html which looks into the probability of each result. Chelsea should beat Arsenal this afternoon you would think - but based on a very careful and thorough analysis of past results the FinkTank comes up with 52.3% probability of a Chelsea win, 29.1% for a draw and 18.6% chance of an Arsenal win. Generally the bookmakers odds are similar to the FinkTank calculations.

Since the better team does not always win the league table does sometimes mislead us.

I agree with your reasoning based on a one off game, hence cup shocks. I couldn't see Macc winning the prem though. Im pretty sure they would finish bottom. Why am I so sure? Cos they are total cack. I dont ever feel mislead by a table, not after 20 odd games anyway.

[Magic Man Fan]

As always with the match thread I've skimmed through it first before making my comments to see how they compare. From the skimming through I've noticed the same boring predictable comments from the same boring predictable posters.

All ask yourselves this, back in August would you have been deleriously happy with the following:

Into December, 21 games in, regardless of team or individual performances we are 7 points clear, lost only two games, with a goal difference of +22.

If the answers is no, then you are officially deluded.

Swindon were an excellent side and have done what we have all season to most before us. Defended excellently, pressed in midfield and took their chances. End of. We were poor on the day, they were good. It is probably a while before we have that many players on off days like that, it's just a shame it was against our nearest rivals...but they are still SEVEN points behind us!

Lots of players were well below par but why are people blaming injury for Dobson's atrociousness? He has been like that for months as I have been happy to tell you all. Being injured does not stop a player making a 10 yard pass. At least you are started to recognise what I told you ages ago.

Plus points. Scott Dann is immense but unfortunately that means he will be off in Jan. Pead is a good midfielder and should be used there.

People love to slag Keates off for no other reason that he is small but we badly missed him yesterday. Swindon won hands down because their midfield was superior and they pressed everything we did. This is exactly what Keates does for us but people can't see it. It showed today and we did miss him without question.

Pead and Keates in centre midfield for me until Dobson loses a stone or half. Sod height, sod strength, if they press players and don't give the opposition time and can play simple passes to the "wide" players then I am happy.

And to make the weekend worse M*rs*n is on Sky again today. :evil: But at least it might remind you that just a second loss in nearly half a season could be FAR, FAR worse.

[Whitti Steve]

As always with the match thread I've skimmed through it first before making my comments to see how they compare. From the skimming through I've noticed the same boring predictable comments from the same boring predictable posters.

All ask yourselves this, back in August would you have been deleriously happy with the following:

Into December, 21 games in, regardless of team or individual performances we are 7 points clear, lost only two games, with a goal difference of +22.

If the answers is no, then you are officially deluded.

Swindon were an excellent side and have done what we have all season to most before us. Defended excellently, pressed in midfield and took their chances. End of. We were poor on the day, they were good. It is probably a while before we have that many players on off days like that, it's just a shame it was against our nearest rivals...but they are still SEVEN points behind us!

Lots of players were well below par but why are people blaming injury for Dobson's atrociousness? He has been like that for months as I have been happy to tell you all. Being injured does not stop a player making a 10 yard pass. At least you are started to recognise what I told you ages ago.

Plus points. Scott Dann is immense but unfortunately that means he will be off in Jan. Pead is a good midfielder and should be used there.

People love to slag Keates off for no other reason that he is small but we badly missed him yesterday. Swindon won hands down because their midfield was superior and they pressed everything we did. This is exactly what Keates does for us but people can't see it. It showed today and we did miss him without question.

Pead and Keates in centre midfield for me until Dobson loses a stone or half. Sod height, sod strength, if they press players and don't give the opposition time and can play simple passes to the "wide" players then I am happy.

And to make the weekend worse M*rs*n is on Sky again today. :evil: But at least it might remind you that just a second loss in nearly half a season could be FAR, FAR worse.

Indeed, we missed Keates. As I said, the only creative midfielder yesterday was Scott Dann - when he took matters into his own hands!

But as you say - i am still very happy in our situation thank you very much.

[geoffwhiting]

As always with the match thread I've skimmed through it first before making my comments to see how they compare. From the skimming through I've noticed the same boring predictable comments from the same boring predictable posters.

All ask yourselves this, back in August would you have been deleriously happy with the following:

Into December, 21 games in, regardless of team or individual performances we are 7 points clear, lost only two games, with a goal difference of +22.

If the answers is no, then you are officially deluded.

Swindon were an excellent side and have done what we have all season to most before us. Defended excellently, pressed in midfield and took their chances. End of. We were poor on the day, they were good. It is probably a while before we have that many players on off days like that, it's just a shame it was against our nearest rivals...but they are still SEVEN points behind us!

Lots of players were well below par but why are people blaming injury for Dobson's atrociousness? He has been like that for months as I have been happy to tell you all. Being injured does not stop a player making a 10 yard pass. At least you are started to recognise what I told you ages ago.

Plus points. Scott Dann is immense but unfortunately that means he will be off in Jan. Pead is a good midfielder and should be used there.

People love to slag Keates off for no other reason that he is small but we badly missed him yesterday. Swindon won hands down because their midfield was superior and they pressed everything we did. This is exactly what Keates does for us but people can't see it. It showed today and we did miss him without question.

Pead and Keates in centre midfield for me until Dobson loses a stone or half. Sod height, sod strength, if they press players and don't give the opposition time and can play simple passes to the "wide" players then I am happy.

And to make the weekend worse M*rs*n is on Sky again today. :evil: But at least it might remind you that just a second loss in nearly half a season could be FAR, FAR worse.

I think your post suggests that most people on here are moaning Mark, but if you read the whole thread I think there are probably as many if not more who are at least very satisfied, and in many cases very happy and realistic.

This result was bound to happen sometime, and I'd rather it happened with a team already in there with us than with one on the fringes that could push up towards us and the vital top three places.

I hope I put that in the right way! :D

[Magic Man Fan]

As I say geoff, I only skimmed through the thread before commenting but from the posts I read it was the same people moaning about the same things and the same players.

[sid swifty]

Have we stepped back in time to the dreadful Merscum days.
Shocking awfull performance , to many players underperformed .
Was it the curse , no we were beaten by a better side on the day simple as that , I'll put it down to a bad day at the office, nothing we did came off .

What important now is how we bounce back , its unfair to single out individual players each and every one of them were poor .

Its been like that all season Dave...we have just been very lucky...we were shown up for what we really were yesterday...how the hell can any team entertain the crowd when all they do is keep by-passing the midfield with a big hoof from the defence everytime...it means that the midfield dont actually see the ball on the way forward apart from a brief glimse as it goes over their heads...you've all been telling me all season "it doesn't matter how crappy our football is as long as we win"...its amazing how you can all see what ive been seeing all season now we've been shown up for what we are by a team who know how to play football and made our defensive boring styffling style look embarrassing.

Sid , 2 defeats in 21 league game tells me we are far from crap.
what went wrong yesterday i put down to a bad day at the office ,
we will bounce back from this , we did it after Grimsby and will do so again. This is basement football we are not going to see fast flowing football its not about that its about battling , scrapping for every point you can get . and thats what we have been doing all season

Ive said it till i am blue in the face dave...i pay my money to be entertained not to get 3 points and to hell with the performance... we have played some really...really...really dire...defensive football (And i use the word "football" loosely)...it was a breath of fresh air to see swindon play such open attacking football...we hadn't got an answer to it because we are programmed to grind results out.

[sid swifty]

As always with the match thread I've skimmed through it first before making my comments to see how they compare. From the skimming through I've noticed the same boring predictable comments from the same boring predictable posters.

All ask yourselves this, back in August would you have been deleriously happy with the following:

Into December, 21 games in, regardless of team or individual performances we are 7 points clear, lost only two games, with a goal difference of +22.

If the answers is no, then you are officially deluded.

Swindon were an excellent side and have done what we have all season to most before us. Defended excellently, pressed in midfield and took their chances. End of. We were poor on the day, they were good. It is probably a while before we have that many players on off days like that, it's just a shame it was against our nearest rivals...but they are still SEVEN points behind us!

Lots of players were well below par but why are people blaming injury for Dobson's atrociousness? He has been like that for months as I have been happy to tell you all. Being injured does not stop a player making a 10 yard pass. At least you are started to recognise what I told you ages ago.

Plus points. Scott Dann is immense but unfortunately that means he will be off in Jan. Pead is a good midfielder and should be used there.

People love to slag Keates off for no other reason that he is small but we badly missed him yesterday. Swindon won hands down because their midfield was superior and they pressed everything we did. This is exactly what Keates does for us but people can't see it. It showed today and we did miss him without question.

Pead and Keates in centre midfield for me until Dobson loses a stone or half. Sod height, sod strength, if they press players and don't give the opposition time and can play simple passes to the "wide" players then I am happy.

And to make the weekend worse M*rs*n is on Sky again today. :evil: But at least it might remind you that just a second loss in nearly half a season could be FAR, FAR worse.

"From the skimming through I've noticed the same boring predictable comments from the same boring predictable posters".

let me guess mark...they must be the one's that dont agree with you...who of course is always right...will you teach us all you know please... :?

[Magic Man Fan]

We've been great in some away games. Perhaps it's because all the fans there get behind the team and sing instead of sitting moaning at every little thing because we aren't scoring 10 goals every minute.

Just a thought.

[sid swifty]

Match report.

What a miserable bunch. It had to happen sooner or later. Just let's get it out of the system.

http://upthesaddlers.com/wp/archives/20 ... -outpaced/

well you must be well miffed Neil...after all you dont care how we play as long as we win...well we didn't win did we...but a plus point...it was nice to see some open attacking football ...from swindon... :wink:

[sid swifty]

We've been great in some away games. Perhaps it's because all the fans there get behind the team and sing instead of sitting moaning at every little thing because we aren't scoring 10 goals every minute.

Just a thought.

So its the fans that win or lose matches is it?...here's me thinking it was the players and the managers tactics...and i must admit DD and the players have done us proud in that department...but we can only dream of playing like Swindon yesterday because we have neither the players or the will to play football that entertains the people who pay to watch it...which is why i said if we keep it up the gates will drop below the 5,000 mark even if we are still top...and then you will be saying "we're top of the league why are the crowds going down"...the answer is ENTERTAINMENT OR VALUE FOR MONEY.

[Magic Man Fan]

We've been great in some away games. Perhaps it's because all the fans there get behind the team and sing instead of sitting moaning at every little thing because we aren't scoring 10 goals every minute.

Just a thought.

So its the fans that win or lose matches is it?.

No, and I've argued the exact point on another thread.

However you keep banging on about the entertainment value when in all honesty you don't go to that many games. We've been entertained, I was thoroughly entertained at Bury on Tuesday. I guess you were at work. Your loss, not mine.

You appear to have been unlucky in your choice of games because I have been entertained many times this season.

If you don't think you're being entertained, don't go. It's YOUR choice.

[ws3]

On a positive note.

Two points per game is the target and there are only 4 teams in the English four divisions achieving this.

Man Ure
Chelski
Forest

and the Supers.

So only two English teams hitting target so far.

:D