Brexit Breakfast

[Manchester Saddler]

Just to add something, it is stated that people knew what they were voting for. People were asked on TV from South Yorkshire, South Wales Cornwall (all areas which voted to leave) what they knew about the EU. There answers were the same from all 3 areas what has the EU done for us. The EU poured millions into the UK and these areas under the European Structural and Investment Funds which helped with the re-generation of the Coalfields amongst other areas. Millions under the European Social Fund were spent on re-training people throughout the UK with millions more in these 3 areas under Objective 1 funding. They had`nt a clue what the EU has done in the UK because each € did`nt come stamped "from the EU". Just 1 example of people knowing "all the facts" before voting.

In 2016 the UK government paid £13.1 billion to the EU budget, and EU spending on the UK was forecast to be £4.5 billion.

Lets do our own re-generation.

Reality Check:

That is not quite true, NSD.

The figures I saw were that we give £18.9 billion to the EU - a figure that is far more than the £13.1 billion. :shock:

However,we get a rebate of £4.2 billion (as negotiated by the Blue Witch) PLUS £5.6 billion EU funded public and private sector credits, leaving a total of £8.1 billion net contribution.

Putting that into perspective, the government spends £814 billion pounds annually - i.e. we spend about 1% to be members of the EU.

For that, we get full access to the customs union, single market and everything else EU membership gives us, contributing to a stronger economy and bigger growth forecasts.

According to the leaked report:

In north-east England growth would be 3% lower if the UK stayed in the single market, 11% under a trade deal and 16% with no trade deal compared with staying in the EU.

The research suggests London - which backed Remain - would fare the best, with reductions of 1%, 2% and 2.5% in each of the three scenarios.

Scotland's estimated hit would be 2.5%, 6% and 9%. Wales would see reductions of 1.5%, 5.5% and 9.5%.

I don't think we will be able to afford our own regeneration - do you?

And here goes my self imposed sabbatical from this thread.
Yet again Manchester, as regular as clockwork, you are quoting predictions and forecasts.
Just remind me please what happened to these "so called experts" predictions and forecasts prior to us voting to Leave ?
I can't for the life of me remember what was being preached about what would happen if we opted to Leave.
I think it goes along the lines of "Financial Armageddon, Financial Abyss and Doom and Gloom" for all of eternity.
18 months down the line and these promises have not been kept.
To say I am disappointed is an understatement.

Why not just stay away, Swampy lad? You've already conceded defeat once. You are a trier, though so welcome back. :D

Just to be clear. The figures about the UK contribution to the EU are FACT - not forecast. One of your fellow Brexiteers decided to bring that up - not me.

Second - this is a government report - they do this all the time to decide policy. You vote for parties based on these policies that are based on reports such as this.

It is a FACT that we have dropped from 5th to 6th on the World's biggest economy chart. This has happened SINCE the referendum. India are now gaining ground. This too is FACT.

The predictions of financial doom and gloom etc. are based on what will happen AFTER BREXIT - not before, or during the negotiations but AFTER BREXIT.

Is that such a hard concept to grasp?

At this crucial time, we are still part of the EU and we are paying the membership and we are still part of the single market and customs union etc. etc.

Depending on the nature of Brexit (anything between soft and hard) the rug will be pulled from under our feet to some extent and when we have a much worse trade deal with EU or whatever, it is common sense that we will be worse off.

I'm tired of repeating myself on this. It's like trying to nail jelly to the wall. Since the vote and during the EU negotiations, we have seen and are seeing the slow deterioration of our economy.

Growth is down compared to the EU and the rest of the world.

Our economy is shrinking (as is shown by the league table of the world's largest economies).

If you take off your blinkers it is as clear as day.

I can't help it if you are in denial, mate. Perhaps you can make yourself feel better by stopping reading the thread again.

Unless of course you can provide some hard evidence that I am wrong - which you seem reluctant or unable to do (the latter I suspect because I have found nothing to change my mind).

:D

[Manchester Saddler]

Actually Manchester I do keep up, more than you will ever know

According to a report from 3 years ago, Brazil, Indonesia & Nigeria will be in the top 10 economies of the world by 2030
But then again that’s only a “forecast”
Would that be down to Brexit?

They will certainly gain ground on us BECAUSE of Brexit if that's the case, Wragbyred.

Do you care to answer the questions I asked Cully earlier?

:D

[chunkster]

Actually Manchester I do keep up, more than you will ever know

According to a report from 3 years ago, Brazil, Indonesia & Nigeria will be in the top 10 economies of the world by 2030
But then again that’s only a “forecast”
Would that be down to Brexit?

Can we trade with them so that we can fudge those Europeans off :mrgreen:

[Wragbyred]

So.. a report from three years ago indicates we will fall down the economic ladder,
and a referendum we had 18 months ago appears to affect that?..
Hmm...
Don’t quite see the correlation there?

Manchester, I’ll give you 3 words, try and make a phrase out of them
Sand
Head
Bury

[chunkster]

Just to add something, it is stated that people knew what they were voting for. People were asked on TV from South Yorkshire, South Wales Cornwall (all areas which voted to leave) what they knew about the EU. There answers were the same from all 3 areas what has the EU done for us. The EU poured millions into the UK and these areas under the European Structural and Investment Funds which helped with the re-generation of the Coalfields amongst other areas. Millions under the European Social Fund were spent on re-training people throughout the UK with millions more in these 3 areas under Objective 1 funding. They had`nt a clue what the EU has done in the UK because each € did`nt come stamped "from the EU". Just 1 example of people knowing "all the facts" before voting.

In 2016 the UK government paid £13.1 billion to the EU budget, and EU spending on the UK was forecast to be £4.5 billion.

Lets do our own re-generation.

Reality Check:

That is not quite true, NSD.

The figures I saw were that we give £18.9 billion to the EU - a figure that is far more than the £13.1 billion. :shock:

However,we get a rebate of £4.2 billion (as negotiated by the Blue Witch) PLUS £5.6 billion EU funded public and private sector credits, leaving a total of £8.1 billion net contribution.

Putting that into perspective, the government spends £814 billion pounds annually - i.e. we spend about 1% to be members of the EU.

For that, we get full access to the customs union, single market and everything else EU membership gives us, contributing to a stronger economy and bigger growth forecasts.

According to the leaked report:

In north-east England growth would be 3% lower if the UK stayed in the single market, 11% under a trade deal and 16% with no trade deal compared with staying in the EU.

The research suggests London - which backed Remain - would fare the best, with reductions of 1%, 2% and 2.5% in each of the three scenarios.

Scotland's estimated hit would be 2.5%, 6% and 9%. Wales would see reductions of 1.5%, 5.5% and 9.5%.

I don't think we will be able to afford our own regeneration - do you?

Sounds a bit like being on an All Inclusive holiday but you don't drink :lol: i rather prefer a self catering one where you get what you pay for and it's your own choice :mrgreen:

[Manchester Saddler]

So.. a report from three years ago indicates we will fall down the economic ladder,
and a referendum we had 18 months ago appears to affect that?..
Hmm...
Don’t quite see the correlation there?

Manchester, I’ll give you 3 words, try and make a phrase out of them
Sand
Head
Bury

Wragbyred - we HAVE fallen down the ladder.

If you want to give me evidence about how we will thrive post Brexit - please do! Please, if you think I am blinkered and living in a cave with my head buried in the sand, provide something that will help me see the Brexit light!!!!!

You can't! I've been asking for most of this thread!

Brexiteers are simply ignoring the evidence. Whose head is in the sand again? :?

[Manchester Saddler]

Just to add something, it is stated that people knew what they were voting for. People were asked on TV from South Yorkshire, South Wales Cornwall (all areas which voted to leave) what they knew about the EU. There answers were the same from all 3 areas what has the EU done for us. The EU poured millions into the UK and these areas under the European Structural and Investment Funds which helped with the re-generation of the Coalfields amongst other areas. Millions under the European Social Fund were spent on re-training people throughout the UK with millions more in these 3 areas under Objective 1 funding. They had`nt a clue what the EU has done in the UK because each € did`nt come stamped "from the EU". Just 1 example of people knowing "all the facts" before voting.

In 2016 the UK government paid £13.1 billion to the EU budget, and EU spending on the UK was forecast to be £4.5 billion.

Lets do our own re-generation.

Reality Check:

That is not quite true, NSD.

The figures I saw were that we give £18.9 billion to the EU - a figure that is far more than the £13.1 billion. :shock:

However,we get a rebate of £4.2 billion (as negotiated by the Blue Witch) PLUS £5.6 billion EU funded public and private sector credits, leaving a total of £8.1 billion net contribution.

Putting that into perspective, the government spends £814 billion pounds annually - i.e. we spend about 1% to be members of the EU.

For that, we get full access to the customs union, single market and everything else EU membership gives us, contributing to a stronger economy and bigger growth forecasts.

According to the leaked report:

In north-east England growth would be 3% lower if the UK stayed in the single market, 11% under a trade deal and 16% with no trade deal compared with staying in the EU.

The research suggests London - which backed Remain - would fare the best, with reductions of 1%, 2% and 2.5% in each of the three scenarios.

Scotland's estimated hit would be 2.5%, 6% and 9%. Wales would see reductions of 1.5%, 5.5% and 9.5%.

I don't think we will be able to afford our own regeneration - do you?

Sounds a bit like being on an All Inclusive holiday but you don't drink :lol: i rather prefer a self catering one where you get what you pay for and it's your own choice :mrgreen:

That must be a wind up!

:D

[Wragbyred]

Manchester, you may be starting to convince me, £8.1 billion, not a lot is it?

How about 15000/20000 nurses a year..... year after year after year?

Not a lot at all is it?

[swampysaddler]

We have been here with these predictions before. Manchester may I refer you to the below link.
Bit of deja vu don't you think ?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-e ... m-36355564

Everybody knows these forecasts and predictions are set up to fail (any MP worth his salt will tell you that) so that when all this doom and gloom doesn't happen it makes the sitting Government look good by averting recession.
Hopefully in 15 years time (if I am still about then) I can refer back to this thread and ask AGAIN when are these predictions going to come to fruition.

[swampysaddler]

Second - this is a government report - they do this all the time to decide policy. You vote for parties based on these policies that are based on reports such as this. :D

Have you seen a copy of this leaked report ?
It is all over twitter and other sites with the heading at the bottom being of interest. Supplied by "BritainStays.co.uk
Not hard to work out what side of the argument they are on is it ?

[Manchester Saddler]

We have been here with these predictions before. Manchester may I refer you to the below link.
Bit of deja vu don't you think ?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-e ... m-36355564

Everybody knows these forecasts and predictions are set up to fail (any MP worth his salt will tell you that) so that when all this doom and gloom doesn't happen it makes the sitting Government look good by averting recession.
Hopefully in 15 years time (if I am still about then) I can refer back to this thread and ask AGAIN when are these predictions going to come to fruition.

<sigh>

Yeah - sick of reading it tbh. But as I said before - that was one scary scenario of leaving before any proper analysis had been done but is flawed for a couple of reasons, the biggest being (and I think you really need to grasp this to understand):

WE ARE STILL IN THE EU!

The things mentioned might actually come to pass WHEN WE EVENTUALLY LEAVE particularly if we have a HARD BREXIT.

Here's a challenge for you, Swampy lad.

Give me some evidence that we are beginning to prosper and that Brexit will be amazing.

I'll give you a week.

:D

[SaigonSaddler]

Second - this is a government report - they do this all the time to decide policy. You vote for parties based on these policies that are based on reports such as this. :D

Have you seen a copy of this leaked report ?
It is all over twitter and other sites with the heading at the bottom being of interest. Supplied by "BritainStays.co.uk
Not hard to work out what side of the argument they are on is it ?

It is a leaked government report detailing that we'd be worse off after Brexit, it really doesn't matter who is sharing it!

The Midlands is predicted to suffer a 13% economic hit after Brexit, the North 16%. But wait, you don't like predictions - but WHERE ARE YOURS???

Where is the counter evidence to suggest Brexit is going to be great? Your position.

They don't exist.

You may now go back to spamming June 2016 strawman bilge. You have literally nothing else.

[SaigonSaddler]

Actually Manchester I do keep up, more than you will ever know

According to a report from 3 years ago, Brazil, Indonesia & Nigeria will be in the top 10 economies of the world by 2030
But then again that’s only a “forecast”
Would that be down to Brexit?

Can we trade with them so that we can fudge those Europeans off :mrgreen:

:lol:

The EU accounts for 43% of our exports, let's ditch that and start a trade deal with Nigeria. Flipping brilliant Brexit logic there!

As for forecasts, no serious report I've ever read states that something will happen, simply that there is a possibility, probability or likelihood, so let's get that straight.

A veracity of a prediction is dependent purely on what the evidence is in support. I can bet that each and every report on the rise of Nigeria etc had a massive section on political instability. So, is it really a surprise to find Nigeria etc isn't knocking on the door of the G8?

Brexit. The deal is this, leave the world's largest trading block. Customs union? Dunno? Plan? Dunno? Okaaaay ... What about keeping London as the financial centre of the EU? Errr ... the EU says no, moving it to Paris and Frankfurt, but that's in the future and that need not concern us cos 'predictions' and I don't like predictions.

What?!

Sure, no-one knows precisely what's going to unfold over the next couple of decades, but you don't have to be a genius to make a clear prediction that playing a game without a goalkeeper based on nothing more than 'cus everyone sez so doesn't mean it's a bad decision' will result in a stinging defeat.

And that's always been the Brexit logic, even as all the claims they've made have been stripped away. Pah, predictions, kick it down the road and let's see what happens. DELUDED. :idea:

[NEWPORT SADDLERS DAD]

In 2015, 44% of the UK's goods and services were exported to the EU, while 53% of our imports came to the UK from the EU. In the same year, UK exports to the EU were valued at £223.3 billion, while UK imports from the EU stood at £291.1 billion.25 May 2016

So all this stops on brexit day, even if they slap on import taxes we can do the same.Our exports are important to the EU and despite remainers continuing
to discredit everthing brexit it's in everyones interest to keep trading with each other and we will,and meanwhile pick up a few odd jobs around the globe. :D

[Morty]

Yet again Manchester, as regular as clockwork, you are quoting predictions and forecasts.
Just remind me please what happened to these "so called experts" predictions and forecasts prior to us voting to Leave ?

Ah - the "one forecast was wrong so all forecasts are wrong" argument!

I presume therefore Swampy will happily admit that all his Prediction League efforts are wrong, that he never listens to a weather forecast nor has a flutter down the bookies.....seeing as they're just basically forecasts! :twisted:

[SaigonSaddler]

Yet again Manchester, as regular as clockwork, you are quoting predictions and forecasts.
Just remind me please what happened to these "so called experts" predictions and forecasts prior to us voting to Leave ?

Ah - the "one forecast was wrong so all forecasts are wrong" argument!

I presume therefore Swampy will happily admit that all his Prediction League efforts are wrong, that he never listens to a weather forecast nor has a flutter down the bookies.....seeing as they're just basically forecasts! :twisted:

Lord Swampington couldn't predict his way out of a ripped paper bag. :D

[Wragbyred]

Not to worry remainders, you’ve got George Soros fighting your corner :lol:

Bit like Martin Bormann lobbying for a Synagogue next to the Brandenburg Gate!

[aaaae]

Yet again Manchester, as regular as clockwork, you are quoting predictions and forecasts.
Just remind me please what happened to these "so called experts" predictions and forecasts prior to us voting to Leave ?

Ah - the "one forecast was wrong so all forecasts are wrong" argument!

I presume therefore Swampy will happily admit that all his Prediction League efforts are wrong, that he never listens to a weather forecast nor has a flutter down the bookies.....seeing as they're just basically forecasts! :twisted:

Although in the real world Economists' forecasts are nearly always wrong. They are even worse than weather forecasters :wink:

"Prakash Loungani at the IMF analysed the accuracy of economic forecasters and found something remarkable and worrying. “The record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished,” he said.

His analysis revealed that economists had failed to predict 148 of the past 150 recessions"

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/ ... ience-data

[SaigonSaddler]

Not to worry remainders, you’ve got George Soros fighting your corner :lol:

Bit like Martin Bormann lobbying for a Synagogue next to the Brandenburg Gate!

LOL Yes I saw that this morning. 400k as well, like that's going to result in anything.

Simply more grist to the excruciating Brexit mill.

Thanks Cameron! :oops:

[SaigonSaddler]

Yet again Manchester, as regular as clockwork, you are quoting predictions and forecasts.
Just remind me please what happened to these "so called experts" predictions and forecasts prior to us voting to Leave ?

Ah - the "one forecast was wrong so all forecasts are wrong" argument!

I presume therefore Swampy will happily admit that all his Prediction League efforts are wrong, that he never listens to a weather forecast nor has a flutter down the bookies.....seeing as they're just basically forecasts! :twisted:

Although in the real world Economists' forecasts are nearly always wrong. They are even worse than weather forecasters :wink:

Another gold star I'm waiting for ... I minded to recall your photo of Britain covered in a shroud of snow and use of the word Quixotic. How the world has moved on - with the singular exception of Trump of course, which should tell you something. :wink:

[aaaae]

So.. a report from three years ago indicates we will fall down the economic ladder,
and a referendum we had 18 months ago appears to affect that?..
Hmm...
Don’t quite see the correlation there?

Manchester, I’ll give you 3 words, try and make a phrase out of them
Sand
Head
Bury

Wragbyred - we HAVE fallen down the ladder.

If you want to give me evidence about how we will thrive post Brexit - please do! Please, if you think I am blinkered and living in a cave with my head buried in the sand, provide something that will help me see the Brexit light!!!!!

You can't! I've been asking for most of this thread!

Brexiteers are simply ignoring the evidence. Whose head is in the sand again? :?

UK manufacturing output at its highest for 10 years at least in part due to the fall in the value of the pound after the Brexit vote.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42633502

[aaaae]

Another gold star I'm waiting for ... I minded to recall your photo of Britain covered in a shroud of snow and use of the word Quixotic. How the world has moved on - with the singular exception of Trump of course, which should tell you something. :wink:

That was a great photo though wasn't it? :wink: From 2010 I think, what a winter that was. Coldest on record wasn't it?

[SaigonSaddler]

Another gold star I'm waiting for ... I minded to recall your photo of Britain covered in a shroud of snow and use of the word Quixotic. How the world has moved on - with the singular exception of Trump of course, which should tell you something. :wink:

That was a great photo though wasn't it? :wink: From 2010 I think, what a winter that was. Coldest on record wasn't it?

That was it yes, the fact that we were having the warmest year on record was somehow irrelevant, because - look, snow.

Oh how we laughed. :D

[swampysaddler]

Yet again Manchester, as regular as clockwork, you are quoting predictions and forecasts.
Just remind me please what happened to these "so called experts" predictions and forecasts prior to us voting to Leave ?

Ah - the "one forecast was wrong so all forecasts are wrong" argument!

I presume therefore Swampy will happily admit that all his Prediction League efforts are wrong, that he never listens to a weather forecast nor has a flutter down the bookies.....seeing as they're just basically forecasts! :twisted:

Lord Swampington couldn't predict his way out of a ripped paper bag. :D

Bit like your predictions in the Predictions League and your backing of Predictions in June 2016 which still haven't came to fruition 18 months later.

[swampysaddler]

Second - this is a government report - they do this all the time to decide policy. You vote for parties based on these policies that are based on reports such as this. :D

Have you seen a copy of this leaked report ?
It is all over twitter and other sites with the heading at the bottom being of interest. Supplied by "BritainStays.co.uk
Not hard to work out what side of the argument they are on is it ?

It is a leaked government report detailing that we'd be worse off after Brexit, it really doesn't matter who is sharing it!

The Midlands is predicted to suffer a 13% economic hit after Brexit, the North 16%. But wait, you don't like predictions - but WHERE ARE YOURS???

Where is the counter evidence to suggest Brexit is going to be great? Your position.

They don't exist.

You may now go back to spamming June 2016 strawman bilge. You have literally nothing else.

That one word invalidates any argument against Brexit.

[swampysaddler]

Yet again Manchester, as regular as clockwork, you are quoting predictions and forecasts.
Just remind me please what happened to these "so called experts" predictions and forecasts prior to us voting to Leave ?

Ah - the "one forecast was wrong so all forecasts are wrong" argument!

I presume therefore Swampy will happily admit that all his Prediction League efforts are wrong, that he never listens to a weather forecast nor has a flutter down the bookies.....seeing as they're just basically forecasts! :twisted:

Nope they are normally just "pot luck".

[SaigonSaddler]

Second - this is a government report - they do this all the time to decide policy. You vote for parties based on these policies that are based on reports such as this. :D

Have you seen a copy of this leaked report ?
It is all over twitter and other sites with the heading at the bottom being of interest. Supplied by "BritainStays.co.uk
Not hard to work out what side of the argument they are on is it ?

It is a leaked government report detailing that we'd be worse off after Brexit, it really doesn't matter who is sharing it!

The Midlands is predicted to suffer a 13% economic hit after Brexit, the North 16%. But wait, you don't like predictions - but WHERE ARE YOURS???

Where is the counter evidence to suggest Brexit is going to be great? Your position.

They don't exist.

You may now go back to spamming June 2016 strawman bilge. You have literally nothing else.

That one word invalidates any argument against Brexit.

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

'Kay.

Thankfully the remainder of the human race displays an enhanced level of curiosity.

[chestersaddler]

In 2015, 44% of the UK's goods and services were exported to the EU, while 53% of our imports came to the UK from the EU. In the same year, UK exports to the EU were valued at £223.3 billion, while UK imports from the EU stood at £291.1 billion.25 May 2016

I suspect that the £291 billion spread among 27 countries will have less impact than the £223 billion affecting 1?

[seventies_saddler]

Brexiteers accuse anyone who questions the wisdom of their preferred 'hard brexit' of trying to subvert democracy and 'deny the will of the British people' But they then claim that the 52% who voted to leave the EU also voted for:

Giving up access to the single market and the customs union
The UK falling back on World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules for trade with its former EU partners
British goods and services being subject to tariffs
Adding 10 per cent, for example, to the cost of exported cars
Sectors such as agriculture losing protections against cheap imports from abroad
UK financial losing their "passporting" rights to sell services and operate branches in the EU

No they didn't - some will support the above but we don't know how many - I very much doubt enough to be the majority. So it's actually Mr Rees Mogg and his 30 or so friends in the House of Commons who are trying to subvert democracy, And now they're trying to bully the PM into forcing through their wishes by withdrawing their support.

If we're going to have democracy then we should have either Manchester's second referendum or Cowshed's general election. The hard brexiteers know full well they wouldn't get a mandate for their interpretation of the referendum vote if we had either - which is why they are trying to force this through.

Forget all the experts and forecasters - but all this seriously worries me. The company I work for seeks to attract overseas investors and firms to relocate to the West Midlands. Over the last 5-6 years we've been pretty successful - the WM has attracted the most investment of anywhere outside London. But if the above transpires our the UK's attractiveness as a location for a European HQ or manufacturing or sales hub - and it's been a very attractive proposition for a number of years - is lost. We are unlikely to attract any more and many of those we have may have second thoughts. This puts hundreds of thousands of jobs at risk.

[SaigonSaddler]

In 2015, 44% of the UK's goods and services were exported to the EU, while 53% of our imports came to the UK from the EU. In the same year, UK exports to the EU were valued at £223.3 billion, while UK imports from the EU stood at £291.1 billion.25 May 2016

I suspect that the £291 billion spread among 27 countries will have less impact than the £223 billion affecting 1?

Exactly. And part of the reason why Europeans aren't flapping about the result.

There's a phlegmatic shrug, a tinge of pity and a wry smile.
But the overall sentiment is akin to watching someone else's 14 year old child chucking an ice-cream on the floor then filling their pants in protest. You'd expect them to be old enough to know better, and it's a bit of a spectacle, but their problem at the end of the day.

Some people are still waiting for the German Car industry nanny to come along and clear everything up.

Not happening. :idea: