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Poll: global warming

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Climate Change:

Poll ended at Sat Oct 31, 2009 3:33 am

It's real, it's man-made and we've got to do something NOW (think of the children!)
7
23%
It's real, it's natural, why change a thing?
17
57%
Who cares - we're all gonna die!
3
10%
Stafflers
3
10%
 
Total votes : 30
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Exile
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Poll: global warming

Wed Oct 21, 2009 3:33 am

Just wondered what UTSers think at the moment...I've used the phrase 'Climate Change' in the poll to allow for all eventualities.

There's a summit in Copenhagen in December that will affect every one of us. Will the government make the right call?

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Re: Poll: global warming

Wed Oct 21, 2009 5:31 am

It's a natural cycle of the Earth. I'm sure Pedagogo could tell us how many 4x4's were on the earth to cause the last ice age.

I would be more concerned with 21.12.2012 which is when the latest precipitation (tilting of the earths axis) is supposed to happen. It is supposed to be preceeded by an increase in Hurricanes/earthquakes/volcanoes which seems to be happening. i am sure Ned will be scouring YOUTUBE to enlighten us all about this soon :D .

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Re: Poll: global warming

Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:50 am

I think that it is another means to scare the population into believing that we are all doomed. It is a natural cycle and there ain't nothing we can do about it. I'm sure that we have the ability to make it slightly worse - but it is inevitable.

We should start preparing for the changes that are going to happen rather than concentrating so much on trying to prevent it (because we will NOT prevent it).

I sound like SJ don't I? :D

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Re: Poll: global warming

Wed Oct 21, 2009 8:02 am

Manchester Saddler wrote:I think that it is another means to scare the population into believing that we are all doomed. It is a natural cycle and there ain't nothing we can do about it. I'm sure that we have the ability to make it slightly worse - but it is inevitable.

We should start preparing for the changes that are going to happen rather than concentrating so much on trying to prevent it (because we will NOT prevent it).

I sound like SJ don't I? :D

Agree with all that.

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Re: Poll: global warming

Wed Oct 21, 2009 8:32 am

It is a natural process, man hasn't helped matters.

I think people are deluding themselves if they think we just do a spot of carbon trading and turn off the stand by light will correct things. We're talking about a global heating and cooling system here where there are so many factors involved that create and maintain the current climate model. Besides, carbon is not the only gas that can alter the climate model, methane can create a huge impact on climate change. There are vast pockets of the stuff in the Earth's crust.

What the world's leaders should be looking to now is preparation for climate change. We need to invest in technologies that will offset resource shortages. The dependency on fossil fuels is just sticking our head in the sand. Once these resources become more difficult to extract and known reserves become more strategic we will see a shift in policy by a lot of governments.

The world as a whole needs to move towards the development of sustainable resource management. It will be hugely expensive, but the alternative of waiting for fossil fuels to dwindle surely can not be considered a sensible option.

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Re: Poll: global warming

Wed Oct 21, 2009 8:45 am

The hottest average annual global temperature was recorded in 1998. Since then carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere have continued to rise.

If there is just a simple correlation between temperature of the earth and CO2 levels in the atmosphere then the temperature would have continued to rise every year in line with CO2 emmissions. So clearly there is more to it than CO2 emmissions. Duuuuuurrrrrrrr!!

Also read an item about how the ice is melting in the antartic which made me laugh the other day. Aparantly man made CO2 emmisions are to blame for this ice melt, which began in............get this.......18,000 BC!!

What does climate change mean?!! It's like calling the weather, weather change or the tides, tide change, or the sunset, light change. All of these things have always changed right the way through history, for millions of years. Difference is no scientists or media organisations or politicians were making money out of it then.

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Re: Poll: global warming

Wed Oct 21, 2009 10:22 am

Of course it's happening, the question is how much of our influence is causing it.

The important thing to do is get the facts right, or at least make sense of them as much as possible. The figure of a 18,000 year glacial melting (didn't the last ice-age end 12,000 years ago?) seems nice - but melting has drastically increased over the last few decades and predictions from some quarters (British research in the arctic - over 7 years I believe) suggest an ice-free arctic in the summer of 2020.

Highly unusual, unique phemonena in fact.

Something's going on and man's use of resources is the chief suspect.

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Re: Poll: global warming

Wed Oct 21, 2009 11:17 am

SaigonSaddler wrote:Of course it's happening, the question is how much of our influence is causing it.

The important thing to do is get the facts right, or at least make sense of them as much as possible. The figure of a 18,000 year glacial melting (didn't the last ice-age end 12,000 years ago?) seems nice - but melting has drastically increased over the last few decades and predictions from some quarters (British research in the arctic - over 7 years I believe) suggest an ice-free arctic in the summer of 2020.

Highly unusual, unique phemonena in fact.

Something's going on and man's use of resources is the chief suspect.

The ice reached it's maximum expanse (this time around) 20,000 years ago (according the the article I mentioned) - hence my figure of 18,000 BC.

Polar ice reflects solar radiation back into space, it being white and all. As the ice melts, less heat gets reflected and the temperature rises and the ice melts and so on. It's a positive feedback mechanism. The ice melting by it's very nature, will accelerate over time, regardless of any other factors.

British research in the arctic? So you say people get paid to go to the arctic to carry out research? Hmmmmmm, interesting.

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Re: Poll: global warming

Wed Oct 21, 2009 11:45 am

Whatever's to blame, I think the government ought to tax us more in order to combat it...

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Re: Poll: global warming

Wed Oct 21, 2009 12:16 pm

PJD wrote:
SaigonSaddler wrote:Of course it's happening, the question is how much of our influence is causing it.

The important thing to do is get the facts right, or at least make sense of them as much as possible. The figure of a 18,000 year glacial melting (didn't the last ice-age end 12,000 years ago?) seems nice - but melting has drastically increased over the last few decades and predictions from some quarters (British research in the arctic - over 7 years I believe) suggest an ice-free arctic in the summer of 2020.

Highly unusual, unique phemonena in fact.

Something's going on and man's use of resources is the chief suspect.

The ice reached it's maximum expanse (this time around) 20,000 years ago (according the the article I mentioned) - hence my figure of 18,000 BC.

Polar ice reflects solar radiation back into space, it being white and all. As the ice melts, less heat gets reflected and the temperature rises and the ice melts and so on. It's a positive feedback mechanism. The ice melting by it's very nature, will accelerate over time, regardless of any other factors.

British research in the arctic? So you say people get paid to go to the arctic to carry out research? Hmmmmmm, interesting.


Yes I know all about albedo and the reflective qualities of various coverings. The ice at both poles was long term blue ice - the stuff formed over thousands of years as it is packed down - I could go through the process. It was thick and stable. Even very recently. Over the last few decades various studies (including the most recent British one) have independendly concluded that this ice has become thinner to the extent where it will disappear. This is certain.

This not the culmination of a 18,000 year process of inevitable reduction, but the very recent and unusual melting of vast ice sheets that are now breaking off and sliding towards the sea en-masse.

People may get paid for research, but from a educational establishment that pays them whatever they do. If it was conducted by Shell or BP then I too might be concerned about neutrality. But there are more than enough independent studies that conclude the same thing. Ice is dramatically melting - faster than at any time in human record.

Only the cause is open to debate.

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Re: Poll: global warming

Wed Oct 21, 2009 12:31 pm

SaigonSaddler wrote:
PJD wrote:
SaigonSaddler wrote:Of course it's happening, the question is how much of our influence is causing it.

The important thing to do is get the facts right, or at least make sense of them as much as possible. The figure of a 18,000 year glacial melting (didn't the last ice-age end 12,000 years ago?) seems nice - but melting has drastically increased over the last few decades and predictions from some quarters (British research in the arctic - over 7 years I believe) suggest an ice-free arctic in the summer of 2020.

Highly unusual, unique phemonena in fact.

Something's going on and man's use of resources is the chief suspect.

The ice reached it's maximum expanse (this time around) 20,000 years ago (according the the article I mentioned) - hence my figure of 18,000 BC.

Polar ice reflects solar radiation back into space, it being white and all. As the ice melts, less heat gets reflected and the temperature rises and the ice melts and so on. It's a positive feedback mechanism. The ice melting by it's very nature, will accelerate over time, regardless of any other factors.

British research in the arctic? So you say people get paid to go to the arctic to carry out research? Hmmmmmm, interesting.


Yes I know all about albedo and the reflective qualities of various coverings. The ice at both poles was long term blue ice - the stuff formed over thousands of years as it is packed down - I could go through the process. It was thick and stable. Even very recently. Over the last few decades various studies (including the most recent British one) have independendly concluded that this ice has become thinner to the extent where it will disappear. This is certain.

This not the culmination of a 18,000 year process of inevitable reduction, but the very recent and unusual melting of vast ice sheets that are now breaking off and sliding towards the sea en-masse.

People may get paid for research, but from a educational establishment that pays them whatever they do. If it was conducted by Shell or BP then I too might be concerned about neutrality. But there are more than enough independent studies that conclude the same thing. Ice is dramatically melting - faster than at any time in human record.

Only the cause is open to debate.


I know the cause of the melting of this long term blue ice ..... it's bloody loads of bearded scientists continually drilling into it and poking around in it :mrgreen:

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Re: Poll: global warming

Wed Oct 21, 2009 12:48 pm

The climate change debate isn't just about rising seas etc. It's a bout large areas of arable land becoming no good for crop growing any more. The world's population is increasing and it will put more pressure on existing bread basket zones. If we start to lose these fertile areas your looking at food shortages across various areas of the globe.

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Re: Poll: global warming

Wed Oct 21, 2009 12:56 pm

derbysaddler wrote:The climate change debate isn't just about rising seas etc. It's a bout large areas of arable land becoming no good for crop growing any more. The world's population is increasing and it will put more pressure on existing bread basket zones. If we start to lose these fertile areas your looking at food shortages across various areas of the globe.

I am an anthropological global warming skeptic, but I agree that we need to drastically change the way food is grown and distributed and eaten across the globe. Just as we need to change the way we use fossil fuels (not that any of that will stop the weather changing).

We're left with a choice I suppose. For example, and for the sake of argument, do we give up eating meat voluntarily or do we wait for the government to ban the consumption of meat?

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Re: Poll: global warming

Wed Oct 21, 2009 1:08 pm

I started a thread nearly two years ago on the theme "Global Cooling Trend Continues". Since then the cooling trend has continued despite the fact that we are now in an El Nino. It is over 12 years since there has been a warming trend in global temperatures.

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Re: Poll: global warming

Wed Oct 21, 2009 1:10 pm

SaigonSaddler wrote:Yes I know all about albedo and the reflective qualities of various coverings. The ice at both poles was long term blue ice - the stuff formed over thousands of years as it is packed down - I could go through the process. It was thick and stable. Even very recently. Over the last few decades various studies (including the most recent British one) have independendly concluded that this ice has become thinner to the extent where it will disappear. This is certain.

This not the culmination of a 18,000 year process of inevitable reduction, but the very recent and unusual melting of vast ice sheets that are now breaking off and sliding towards the sea en-masse.

People may get paid for research, but from a educational establishment that pays them whatever they do. If it was conducted by Shell or BP then I too might be concerned about neutrality. But there are more than enough independent studies that conclude the same thing. Ice is dramatically melting - faster than at any time in human record.

Only the cause is open to debate.

The earth is warming, the ice is melting. The faster it warms, the faster it melts. Good job we've got NASA on the case eh?

You say the ice is melting faster than at any time in human record, but tell me how fast did it melt at the beginning of the medieval warm period say from 500 to 700 AD? And what caused that warming? And what caused the little ice age from 1400 to 1900 AD?

Both of these events were every bit as dramatic as the current warming phenomena and yet we still have many people adamant that the only possible cause for the current warming is man? Why?

Can you tell me with absolute 100% certainty that we are not having the same warming event now as they had in the medieval warm period and that with 100% certainty it will not be followed by a mini ice age 700 years later. Of course you can't, no-one can. Because no-one knows for certain what caused the medieval warming, and with respect, no-one can know for certain what is causing the current warming.

It reminds me of the current weather forecasters that I heard forecast a 40% chance of rain on Sunday! Talk about money for old rope!

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Re: Poll: global warming

Wed Oct 21, 2009 1:14 pm

PJD wrote:
derbysaddler wrote:The climate change debate isn't just about rising seas etc. It's a bout large areas of arable land becoming no good for crop growing any more. The world's population is increasing and it will put more pressure on existing bread basket zones. If we start to lose these fertile areas your looking at food shortages across various areas of the globe.

I am an anthropological global warming skeptic, but I agree that we need to drastically change the way food is grown and distributed and eaten across the globe. Just as we need to change the way we use fossil fuels (not that any of that will stop the weather changing).

We're left with a choice I suppose. For example, and for the sake of argument, do we give up eating meat voluntarily or do we wait for the government to ban the consumption of meat?


I agree to an extent, climate change would happen whether we were about or not. However, the governments need to stop pussy footing about whether it occurs or not, and start to plan to evolve or way of life around these changes. Personally, I feel all these things such as resource allocation, food production all link together. It's about creating a sustaining system that can cope with changes in the natural world around us, especially if we want to advance as a civilisation.

The meat ban is an interesting one. The destruction of forestry zones to produce cattle creates an awful amount of damage to eco-systems. Meat production is also very labour and resource intensive when done on an industrial scale. Christ, even cows farting produces large volumes of methane. But, would a government ban it? not in the west I think. I could see China doing it some time in the future, because they don't give a toss about what the population thinks.

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Re: Poll: global warming

Wed Oct 21, 2009 1:16 pm

Just as a side issue, the Sun is apparently entering a so called cool period over the next 10-20 years. How that will influence us we'll have to see I suppose.

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Re: Poll: global warming

Wed Oct 21, 2009 1:39 pm

Have a nose at http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8299079.stm for a BBC article about global warming and the fact that 1998 was the warmest year.

Just ignore the bit from "solar scientist Piers Corbyn from Weatheraction" - he's a nut job!! :D

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Re: Poll: global warming

Wed Oct 21, 2009 1:48 pm

Morty wrote:Have a nose at http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8299079.stm for a BBC article about global warming and the fact that 1998 was the warmest year.

Just ignore the bit from "solar scientist Piers Corbyn from Weatheraction" - he's a nut job!! :D

"But it is true. For the last 11 years we have not observed any increase in global temperatures. And our climate models did not forecast it, even though man-made carbon dioxide, the gas thought to be responsible for warming our planet, has continued to rise."

"The UK Met Office's Hadley Centre, responsible for future climate predictions, says it incorporates solar variation and ocean cycles into its climate models, and that they are nothing new. In fact, the centre says they are just two of the whole host of known factors that influence global temperatures - all of which are accounted for by its models."

Contradiction there? Everything is accounted for in their models, but their models did not forecast it? Hmmmmmmmm

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Re: Poll: global warming

Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:44 pm

Was hoping for a bite from sj by now, with a quick rant about population control, tax, New World Order and general loss of freedom.

Here's something for those who are convinced man is the evil stalking the planet....

http://www.friendsofscience.org/

There's plenty more out there if you look.

I'm all for people being educated as to responsibility regarding waste, resource management and stuff like that, but I'm not in favour of a mass conspiracy to fool the public, and their elected (or otherwise) governments into setting up some global scheme for trading emissions (who'll clip the ticket?) and generate what is effectively thir world aid via Western guilt.

The UN International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the main driver of opinion. It's been trundling along making vast amounts of money for those involved with it for well over a decade, and has done a massive U-Turn in that time. When it first identified that Mankind was responsible for climate change, it had a choice of over 2000 papers on climate change to meta-analyse. Members of the Panel chose just 5 (yes, just 5), and then distorted the data to over-dramatise cause and effect. Although the science is in each of their reports, most of the damage is done in the Exectuive Summaries (i.e. the plain English bit, shorn of all the jargon and incomprehensible graphs), which are written by politicians and government representatitves, not scientists. Given that many underdeveloped nations stand to make a bagload of cash out of it, is it any surprise that these reports deliver the result they do?

Al Gore hasn't helped either, peddling this myth with the help of some dubious stats and even more dubious science. His 'Inconvenient Truth' is full of bull and there's little in the way of truth - the polar bears drowning, Kilimanjaro snow melt, sea levels climbing and the 'hockey stick' spring instantly to mind as being (respectively) a lie (there were 5 dead bears, after a storm), a wrong conclusion (it's deforestation disrupting the microclimate), a distortion (it'll be centimetres, not metres) and another lie (it was all made up and the computer model used to generate it produced a hocley stick shape whatever was input!).

The problem is in Copenhagen your PM, my PM, the American president and god knows who else will turn up thinking they're going to save the planet, and that will be their lasting legacy. They'll sign up to whatever the UN says because 'the science is settled' and it'll be too late otherwise. With no public mandate other than opinion and spin, they'll sign away your future, and we'll pay for it for ever after. The UN will be responsible for policing emissions, telling countries who can do what, and more importantly, controlling the cash that goes through it, and collection of that cash. Sounds like a world tax? yup. Who raises taxes? Governments. What have we got? Self-serving weirdos and hippies in charge of telling everyone how to live their life and how much it'll cost them.

I have no doubt the earth's climate changes constantly, but I also believe that it's natural, not man-made. I'll leave you with this one last thought - mankind is responsible for (depending on what you read) only between 1.6% and 4% of CO2 emissions. The earth itself does the rest.

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Re: Poll: global warming

Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:51 pm

PJD wrote:
SaigonSaddler wrote:Yes I know all about albedo and the reflective qualities of various coverings. The ice at both poles was long term blue ice - the stuff formed over thousands of years as it is packed down - I could go through the process. It was thick and stable. Even very recently. Over the last few decades various studies (including the most recent British one) have independendly concluded that this ice has become thinner to the extent where it will disappear. This is certain.

This not the culmination of a 18,000 year process of inevitable reduction, but the very recent and unusual melting of vast ice sheets that are now breaking off and sliding towards the sea en-masse.

People may get paid for research, but from a educational establishment that pays them whatever they do. If it was conducted by Shell or BP then I too might be concerned about neutrality. But there are more than enough independent studies that conclude the same thing. Ice is dramatically melting - faster than at any time in human record.

Only the cause is open to debate.

The earth is warming, the ice is melting. The faster it warms, the faster it melts. Good job we've got NASA on the case eh?

You say the ice is melting faster than at any time in human record, but tell me how fast did it melt at the beginning of the medieval warm period say from 500 to 700 AD? And what caused that warming? And what caused the little ice age from 1400 to 1900 AD?

Both of these events were every bit as dramatic as the current warming phenomena and yet we still have many people adamant that the only possible cause for the current warming is man? Why?

Can you tell me with absolute 100% certainty that we are not having the same warming event now as they had in the medieval warm period and that with 100% certainty it will not be followed by a mini ice age 700 years later. Of course you can't, no-one can. Because no-one knows for certain what caused the medieval warming, and with respect, no-one can know for certain what is causing the current warming.

It reminds me of the current weather forecasters that I heard forecast a 40% chance of rain on Sunday! Talk about money for old rope!


At no time during the last 10,000 years has the north pole been free of ice during the summer - something that is now inevitable (argue all you like but the ice is that thin now).

I'd say that was a pretty dramatic difference to the various warming/cooling of the last 1000 years - but perhaps you can come up with the exact figures/causes as you raised it. Or not, as it seems to pale into insignificance in comparison. OK the Thames was liable to freeze more often and grapes were grown in the UK but that's hardly the same as vast ice sheets expanding southwards or total depletion of ice-sheets.

As for the peak of 1998 and cooling ever since which someone mentioned - I'd love to see the figures on that because the only ones I've been able to access show continual increases on 5 year averages.

I'm afraid the evidence points into one direction - as a brief skirt around popular websites supports, so the onus is on alternative theorists to come up with compelling evidence otherwise.

The human influence cannot be proven but is a pretty compelling smoking gun - similar to someone calling at your house and the family silver disappearing on the same day. But don't let the facts get in the way of a good yarn!

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Re: Poll: global warming

Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:56 pm

We ay helped, but like said before theres nothing we can do to change it and there never has been.

Id be more worried about what we're gonna do when we run out of fuels etc.

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Re: Poll: global warming

Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:58 pm

latviancheese wrote:We ay helped, but like said before theres nothing we can do to change it and there never has been.

Id be more worried about what we're gonna do when we run out of fuels etc.


Har.

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Re: Poll: global warming

Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:59 pm

Dont have much time, so here's my points
Global warming yes.
Global warming as a result of increased carbon emmisions, No.
Natural resources are running out. The World governments need to take drastic action.
Only answer
Advanced Nuclear Power .

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Re: Poll: global warming

Wed Oct 21, 2009 7:04 pm

SaigonSaddler wrote:At no time during the last 10,000 years has the north pole been free of ice during the summer - something that is now inevitable (argue all you like but the ice is that thin now).

I'd say that was a pretty dramatic difference to the various warming/cooling of the last 1000 years - but perhaps you can come up with the exact figures/causes as you raised it. Or not, as it seems to pale into insignificance in comparison. OK the Thames was liable to freeze more often and grapes were grown in the UK but that's hardly the same as vast ice sheets expanding southwards or total depletion of ice-sheets.

As for the peak of 1998 and cooling ever since which someone mentioned - I'd love to see the figures on that because the only ones I've been able to access show continual increases on 5 year averages.

I'm afraid the evidence points into one direction - as a brief skirt around popular websites supports, so the onus is on alternative theorists to come up with compelling evidence otherwise.

The human influence cannot be proven but is a pretty compelling smoking gun - similar to someone calling at your house and the family silver disappearing on the same day. But don't let the facts get in the way of a good yarn!

SS - there's plenty of evidence on cooling since 1998 (which puts Sun activity (as in solar, not newspaper!)in the picture as the smoking gun), see the link I posted above - down 0.22celcius/decade at the last check, even though CO2 increased in the atmosphere over the same period. The longer-term climate cycles all show various heating/cooling phases, and what we've experienced in the last 25 years isn't out of the ordinary.

Note that Pacific ocean patterns have caused warming in the Western Arctic, but Eastern and Greenland regions are cooling. Ice is thicker and more extensive over the last two summer/winter cycles, and within 'usual' parameters, whatever they are! Either way, I'm willing to bet that the pole won't be ice-free in my lifetime, or yours.

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Re: Poll: global warming

Wed Oct 21, 2009 7:19 pm

latviancheese wrote:We ay helped, but like said before theres nothing we can do to change it and there never has been.

Id be more worried about what we're gonna do when we run out of fuels etc.


I agree

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Re: Poll: global warming

Wed Oct 21, 2009 7:59 pm

Exile wrote:
SaigonSaddler wrote:At no time during the last 10,000 years has the north pole been free of ice during the summer - something that is now inevitable (argue all you like but the ice is that thin now).

I'd say that was a pretty dramatic difference to the various warming/cooling of the last 1000 years - but perhaps you can come up with the exact figures/causes as you raised it. Or not, as it seems to pale into insignificance in comparison. OK the Thames was liable to freeze more often and grapes were grown in the UK but that's hardly the same as vast ice sheets expanding southwards or total depletion of ice-sheets.

As for the peak of 1998 and cooling ever since which someone mentioned - I'd love to see the figures on that because the only ones I've been able to access show continual increases on 5 year averages.

I'm afraid the evidence points into one direction - as a brief skirt around popular websites supports, so the onus is on alternative theorists to come up with compelling evidence otherwise.

The human influence cannot be proven but is a pretty compelling smoking gun - similar to someone calling at your house and the family silver disappearing on the same day. But don't let the facts get in the way of a good yarn!

SS - there's plenty of evidence on cooling since 1998 (which puts Sun activity (as in solar, not newspaper!)in the picture as the smoking gun), see the link I posted above - down 0.22celcius/decade at the last check, even though CO2 increased in the atmosphere over the same period. The longer-term climate cycles all show various heating/cooling phases, and what we've experienced in the last 25 years isn't out of the ordinary.

Note that Pacific ocean patterns have caused warming in the Western Arctic, but Eastern and Greenland regions are cooling. Ice is thicker and more extensive over the last two summer/winter cycles, and within 'usual' parameters, whatever they are! Either way, I'm willing to bet that the pole won't be ice-free in my lifetime, or yours.


I'll have to look at your source in more depth over the weekend.

From what I understand: the earth is getting warmer on average (local anomalies aside) and the ice is melting exponentially. The winter ice level might be thicker than the last couple of years but it's melting more rapidly than ever (leaving less ice) in the summer. It's a different kind of ice (not blue ice that's solid as a rock) but thin watery new ice than vanishes quickly.

So obviously more to it than 'more ice, less ice' information. Anyway - more at the weekend!

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Re: Poll: global warming

Wed Oct 21, 2009 8:04 pm

Exile wrote:
SaigonSaddler wrote:At no time during the last 10,000 years has the north pole been free of ice during the summer - something that is now inevitable (argue all you like but the ice is that thin now).

I'd say that was a pretty dramatic difference to the various warming/cooling of the last 1000 years - but perhaps you can come up with the exact figures/causes as you raised it. Or not, as it seems to pale into insignificance in comparison. OK the Thames was liable to freeze more often and grapes were grown in the UK but that's hardly the same as vast ice sheets expanding southwards or total depletion of ice-sheets.

As for the peak of 1998 and cooling ever since which someone mentioned - I'd love to see the figures on that because the only ones I've been able to access show continual increases on 5 year averages.

I'm afraid the evidence points into one direction - as a brief skirt around popular websites supports, so the onus is on alternative theorists to come up with compelling evidence otherwise.

The human influence cannot be proven but is a pretty compelling smoking gun - similar to someone calling at your house and the family silver disappearing on the same day. But don't let the facts get in the way of a good yarn!

SS - there's plenty of evidence on cooling since 1998 (which puts Sun activity (as in solar, not newspaper!)in the picture as the smoking gun), see the link I posted above - down 0.22celcius/decade at the last check, even though CO2 increased in the atmosphere over the same period. The longer-term climate cycles all show various heating/cooling phases, and what we've experienced in the last 25 years isn't out of the ordinary.

Note that Pacific ocean patterns have caused warming in the Western Arctic, but Eastern and Greenland regions are cooling. Ice is thicker and more extensive over the last two summer/winter cycles, and within 'usual' parameters, whatever they are! Either way, I'm willing to bet that the pole won't be ice-free in my lifetime, or yours.


I would try telling the Inuit people of the arctic that the ice is not melting away in eastern Canada. The article below may be a year old but when one of you ice sheets breaks free it gives you an idea of what is happening. Its easy to sit miles away from poles saying global warming is not that serious whether it be man made or not , its real and its is happening. A 1 degree change in temperature at the equator is amplified considerably at the poles and from memory is equal to a 5-6 degree temperature change.

http://www.canada.com/Ellesmere+Island+ ... story.html

another good sign that things are changing in the Arctic is the sudden increased interest over the last five years of arctic nations claiming the territory as theirs, the melting ice means the resources trapped for millions of years are suddenly going to be accessible, where as 15 years ago only the Canadians had a active claim to the North West passage and the seas beyond, all of a sudden we have Russians and Americans staking claims left right and center, even the Danes have got in on the act. One quarter of the worlds undiscovered oil reserves are estimated to be under the arctic sea (how the hell they know that I don't know if its not discovered how can you quantify it buts quoted everywhere so it must be almost true)

Also strange that if the world is in fact now cooling then why is it the large deterioration in the ice sheets has occurred since 2002. 1998 may have been a spike but the longer term trend is still upwards and that sadly is a fact.

Climate change has now been hijacked by politicians and public policy makers and as a result the population has been turned off and we naturally jump to the side of the argument which is more convenient and also the one that is going to cost us less, in reality global warming is a factor of many things, man made and natural, and there are numerous smoking guns.

A question for all though, what is the harm in trying to live on a better bluer planet, small changes in energy consumption are easy to do, and actually can save money.

As for the concept of 2012 - talk to a Mayan he will tell you how modern thinking has twisted the ended of his calender into a mythical event and blockbuster - 2012 is the end of a cycle not the end of time.

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Re: Poll: global warming

Wed Oct 21, 2009 8:22 pm

canadiansaddler wrote:Also strange that if the world is in fact now cooling then why is it the large deterioration in the ice sheets has occurred since 2002. 1998 may have been a spike but the longer term trend is still upwards and that sadly is a fact.


I'd dispute the trend (how long is long term) and the ice sheet deterioration. Here's a graph showing ice extent globally since 1979 - looks like a pretty regular seasonal heartbeat to me.

Image

canadiansaddler wrote:A question for all though, what is the harm in trying to live on a better bluer planet, small changes in energy consumption are easy to do, and actually can save money.


I concur wholeheartedly, but the changes proposed by governments will cost us all dearly.

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Re: Poll: global warming

Wed Oct 21, 2009 8:26 pm

I'm glad I know that there were around 22.75m sq. km of sea ice when I was born.

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